UConn's proving its mettle against top competition

It’s early in the season but all indications are that UConn men’s basketball is a juggernaut once again. The Athletic, ESPN, and CBS, while weirdly fixated on the color of a college basketball program’s blood, have also identified Dan Hurley’s Huskies as a serious contender for the national championship.

After four games against high-major opponents (Indiana, Texas, Kansas, North Carolina), three of them ranked and one on the road, let’s isolate the Huskies’ stats and performances from those four contests to see what we can learn.

Free-throw inconsistency

The Huskies had free-throw percentages in the 60s in two home games against low-major competition. They shot below 60 percent from the charity stripe against Kansas and North Carolina, going 8-of-15 (53%) and 9-of-16 (56%) in those games, respectively.

They were over 80 percent against Indiana and Texas, so it’s not a huge struggle, but still a concern. The Huskies are 138th in the country with a 35.3% free-throw rate, a measure of the team’s ability to get to the free-throw line and one of the four factors in overall efficiency.

In terms of drawing free throws against high-major opponents, UConn’s best free throw rate (free throw attempts divided by field goal attempts) came against Indiana, at 45 percent, while in the other three high-major games it was in the mid-to-high 20s.

Among the starters, Cam Spencer, Alex Karaban, and Tristen Newton are hitting over 82 percent, with Newton taking a team-high 51 free throws.

Hassan Diarra leads the team at 90 percent (9/10) while other bench players have funky averages but also haven’t taken very many free throws.

Donovan Clingan has the second-most FT attempts behind Newton, with 49, but has only hit 52 percent thus far. Fellow big Samson Johnson has hit 58 percent (7/12).

Dealing with Castle’s absence

Despite the free-throw rate, UConn is ranked third in the country in offensive efficiency. This is thanks to great shot selection (2nd in the country in two-point FG%), three-point shooting (15th in eFG%), rebounding (10th in offensive rebounding %), and keeping turnovers down (40th).

UConn’s top lineups without Stephon Castle have all included Newton, Spencer, and Karaban. Solo Ball, Hassan Diarra, and Samson Johnson are the notable standouts off the bench. Ball has been the starter in Castle’s place, rewarding Hurley’s faith in him with smart defensive play and a career-high 13 points against UNC.

One of the main reasons UConn has kept playing well without Castle even as the competition improved has been the consistent play of Spencer and Newton. They’re the Huskies’ top two scorers and provide a tremendous veteran presence in big moments, like when the shot clock is winding down or if the other team is surging.

The fanbases at Kansas and North Carolina learned first-hand to fear those names, just like Texas fans will remember the way Karaban put their team away in the Empire Classic final.

Beyond the statistical success, claiming the NCAA record for consecutive non-conference wins by double-digits, and beating two ranked opponents handily, it’s also encouraging to see these three guys stepping up in big moments.

UConn looks like a dominant force

In addition to being third in offensive efficiency, UConn is 16th in defensive efficiency and third overall in KenPom. The defense and rebounding have remained elite. The Huskies won the rebounding battle in all nine games this season and were particularly dominant in the Indiana, Texas, and UNC games on that front.

None of those three games was ever particularly close, either.

The Huskies are also passing at a high level. They’ve dished 15 or more assists in all but one game, including a season-high 25 against UNC.

Dan Hurley’s squad possesses the most efficient five-man lineup in the Big East, according to CBB Analytics’ Net Rating, and the fifth-most efficient one as well.

The latter is the starting lineup that’s been used since the Mississippi Valley State game, the first one that Castle missed: Ball, Newton, Spencer, Karaban, Clingan. The most efficient unit has Diarra and Samson Johnson in place of Ball and Clingan.

The sample sizes here are still relatively small and incomplete. But it’s a great sign for a lineup that includes two bench players to be rated so highly. It doesn’t mean Diarra or Johnson should be starting, but it does mean they’re doing a great job off the bench.

This will all change once Castle re-enters the mix, but it’s a good sign that these guys have played well together.

Hassan Diarra appreciation

Diarra’s presence on the CBB Analytics top Big East lineups is not the only statistical honor featuring the reserve guard. He’s also formed one of the most efficient backcourt duos in the country along with Newton, according to Evan Miya.

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