Seton Hall Preview: UConn still has room to improve

UConn opens Big East league play with great expectations after a 10-1 run through the non-conference slate. Commenters from Jay Bilas to Jim Boeheim are noticing that Dan Hurley has one of the best teams in the country.

The crazy part is that it can get better.

The Huskies have dealt with some injuries in the early part of the year, but in terms of the guys who played, it would be hard to ask for more. So many different pieces are coming together to spell success for Hurley’s Huskies in 2024.

Tristen Newton is leading the team in points, assists, and rebounds per game, which is absurd. Alex Karaban has stepped up and established himself as a budding star. Cam Spencer is the team’s second-leading scorer, fitting in nicely as the lone transfer. Hassan Diarra has provided a sharp edge off the bench. Solo Ball did a great job filling a starting role and will be another great option off the bench later.

Donovan Clingan is soaring, proving what he’s capable of when fully healthy against the best possible competition with his latest performance against Gonzaga, and UConn has the ridiculous luxury of bringing another dynamic big off the bench in Samson Johnson, who’s averaging 17.5 minutes per game.

The only real issue has been that at various points, Karaban, Clingan, Spencer, and Johnson have had minor injuries keeping them from being 100 percent.

Oh — and the five-star lead guard with an NBA-caliber skillset has barely played due to a knee injury.

With Stephon Castle on his way to seeing more time, and the rest of the squad looking healthier, the Huskies are poised to run through the Big East. They’re projected to win every game by KenPom. This doesn’t mean they should win every game, but they should certainly contend for the league’s regular-season crown.

A few reasons UConn has more upside this year:

Hitting open shots

We have discussed UConn’s shot selection in the past, it’s an area that’s one of the major strengths of this team. We know they shoot from good spots on the floor and hit a high percentage of 2-point shots, currently tied for first in the nation at 64 percent. But there’s more.

Paint Touches has identified that UConn is 2nd in the country in unguarded spot-ups per game. They also noticed that UConn is hitting a lower-than-average percentage of its open looks, a number that is expected to revert to the average, meaning that the Huskies should hit more shots in the future if they can keep up their current level of ball movement and discipline in shot selection.

Castle Powering Up

Stephon Castle returned from injury in the North Carolina game, playing 11 minutes in that contest. Since then, he’s played 18 and 19 minutes against Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Gonzaga, respectively, coming off the bench as he works his way back to full health, averaging 6.5 points and 3.5 assists in those last two games.

In his limited time since returning, Castle has reminded us why he’s a future NBA Draft pick. The athleticism, playmaking ability, and confidence are all things that this UConn team will need in Big East and postseason play. Considering the Huskies lost by four at Kansas, one can’t help but think where this team would be with a fully healthy Castle.

We’ll find out soon.

Clingan Activated

Donovan Clingan had a preseason foot injury which was among the reasons, including an illness, that he was not at 100 percent early in the season. Against Gonzaga, he didn’t have his highest point total, but it was certainly his best game of the season considering the top-10 opponent. The Bristol native scored 21 points while grabbing eight rebounds, swatting two blocks, and also demonstrating some nice passing with three assists.

Clingan’s improved health has also perhaps had an impact at the foul line. He’s shooting just a shade over 50 percent on the season, which needs to improve, but went a solid 5-of-7 against Gonzaga.

We know he has a solid shot. We know he’s a defensive force. But if Clingan’s game is coming together like this on offense, especially if he can take hacking away from defenses by improving at the free-throw line, then this is a much more dangerous UConn team than we’ve seen in November and December.

Seton Hall Preview

TV: CBS Sports Network (Tom McCarthy, Steve Lappas)

Radio: UConn Sports Network — 97.9 FM — (Mike Crispino, Wayne Norman)

Odds: UConn -11, O/U 142 (via Covers)

KenPom Predicted Score: UConn 77 - Seton Hall 67 | 82% win probability

Matchup Review

UConn has the advantage in every major offensive category and most defensive categories except for steals and offensive rebounds. Seton Hall is slightly better at forcing turnovers but the Huskies have a major edge in this matchup overall, with much better efficiency on both sides. In particular, they’re stronger at passing (assists/per game), shooting (eFG%), and shooting defense (opponent eFG%), in addition to blocking shots.